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FX Pressure Index

LOW PRESSURE5yr low

External sector vulnerability via import cover, current account balance, naira exchange rate and private credit. Higher = more FX pressure.

Composite read2025

FX Pressure Index stands at 14.2 of 100 — low pressure, at a 5-year low. Down 34.4 pts on the year, off its 2015 high of 79.8. Private Sector Credit to GDP pushes the score up most, while Current Account Balance pulls it down. The reading is firm — re-weighting its components keeps it within 11–17.

0weight-robustness band 11–17100

▲ Private Sector Credit to GDP▼ Current Account Balance

Current Score

14.2

index 0–100 · 2025

↓ 34.4 pts vs prior

5yr low

Historical Trend — last 20 periods

Line chart in /100 from 2006 to 2025. Latest 14.18 /100, up 25.2% over the period. Range 11.33 to 79.76.
Period	/100
2006	11.33
2007	12.27
2008	34.82
2009	55.97
2010	60.33
2011	66.15
2012	44.61
2013	47.55
2014	73.1
2015	79.76
2016	68.78
2017	33.39
2018	52.13
2019	73.17
2020	64.67
2021	64.12
2022	75.06
2023	73.83
2024	48.62
2025	14.18

Component Indicators

4 components

What is moving the score

What is moving the score
Component	Contribution ( pts)
Current Account Balance	−9.2
Official NGN/USD Exchange Rate	−8.7
Private Sector Credit to GDP	+6.8
Import Cover	−5.5
Net pull	-16.6

Each driver's weight multiplied by its distance from its own historical median (the 50th percentile). Positive pulls the composite up, negative pulls it down; a driver sitting exactly at its median contributes nothing. Ordered by absolute effect.

Driver map — weight vs current pressure. Top-right = high-weight, high-pressure (watch these).

Component driver map: weight versus current pressure
Item	weight %	pressure (percentile)
Import Cover (months of reserves)	35	34
Current Account Balance (% GDP)	30	19
Official NGN/USD Exchange Rate	20	6
Private Sector Credit to GDP	15	95

Import Cover (months of reserves)35%↓ lowers score5yr high

Contribution pressure: 34% of range · range 7.1–19.1 months

11.89

months · 2024

Current Account Balance (% GDP)30%↓ lowers score

Contribution pressure: 19% of range · range -10.3–15.3 % of GDP

5.1

% of GDP · 2025

Official NGN/USD Exchange Rate20%↑ raises score5yr low

Contribution pressure: 6% of range · range -9.5–346.0 NGN per USD

-6.91

NGN per USD · 2025

Private Sector Credit to GDP15%↓ lowers score5yr low

Contribution pressure: 95% of range · range 9.1–12.8 % of GDP

9.1

% of GDP · 2024

Methodology — Each component is scored by its causal percentile rank against its own history to date (expanding window, no look-ahead), direction-adjusted, then weighted and summed to produce a 0–100 index. Trending nominal levels (e.g. the naira rate) enter as year-on-year change. Percentile labels compare the current reading against the prior 5-year distribution. Recomputed on every data ingest. Full methodology & validation →