External sector vulnerability via import cover, current account balance, naira exchange rate and private credit. Higher = more FX pressure.
LOW PRESSURE5yr lowLower is healthier
14.2current score · 2025↓ 34.4 pts vs prior
Composite read2025
FX Pressure Index stands at 14.2 of 100 — low pressure, at a 5-year low. Down 34.4 pts on the year, off its 2015 high of 79.8. Private Sector Credit to GDP pushes the score up most, while Current Account Balance pulls it down. The reading is firm — re-weighting its components keeps it within 11–17.
0weight-robustness band 11–17100
▲ Private Sector Credit to GDP▼ Current Account Balance
Current reading14.2index 0–100 · 2025↓ 34.4 pts vs prior
5yr low
Historical trajectory · last 20 periods
Line chart in /100 from 2006 to 2025. Latest 14.18 /100, up 25.2% over the period. Range 11.33 to 79.76.
Period
/100
2006
11.33
2007
12.27
2008
34.82
2009
55.97
2010
60.33
2011
66.15
2012
44.61
2013
47.55
2014
73.1
2015
79.76
2016
68.78
2017
33.39
2018
52.13
2019
73.17
2020
64.67
2021
64.12
2022
75.06
2023
73.83
2024
48.62
2025
14.18
Component evidence
Drivers and contribution pressure
4 components
What is moving the score
What is moving the score
Component
Contribution ( pts)
Current Account Balance
−9.2
Official NGN/USD Exchange Rate
−8.7
Private Sector Credit to GDP
+6.8
Import Cover
−5.5
Net pull
-16.6
Each driver's weight multiplied by its distance from its own historical median (the 50th percentile). Positive pulls the composite up, negative pulls it down; a driver sitting exactly at its median contributes nothing. Ordered by absolute effect.
Driver map — weight vs current pressure. Top-right = high-weight, high-pressure (watch these).
Component driver map: weight versus current pressure
Item
weight %
pressure (percentile)
Import Cover (months of reserves)
35
34
Current Account Balance (% GDP)
30
19
Official NGN/USD Exchange Rate
20
6
Private Sector Credit to GDP
15
95
Import Cover (months of reserves)35%↓ lowers score5yr high
Contribution pressure: 34% of range · range 7.1–19.1 months
11.89
months · 2024
Current Account Balance (% GDP)30%↓ lowers score
Contribution pressure: 19% of range · range -10.3–15.3 % of GDP
5.1
% of GDP · 2025
Official NGN/USD Exchange Rate20%↑ raises score5yr low
Contribution pressure: 6% of range · range -9.5–346.0 NGN per USD
-6.91
NGN per USD · 2025
Private Sector Credit to GDP15%↓ lowers score5yr low
Contribution pressure: 95% of range · range 9.1–12.8 % of GDP
9.1
% of GDP · 2024
Methodology and validation
Each component is scored by its causal percentile rank against its own history to date (expanding window, no look-ahead), direction-adjusted, then weighted and summed to produce a 0–100 index. Trending nominal levels such as the naira rate enter as year-on-year change. Percentile labels compare the current reading against the prior five-year distribution. The monitor is recomputed on every data ingest. Full methodology and validation →
