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Fiscal Stress Score

HIGH STRESSnear 5yr low

Government fiscal vulnerability via debt levels, monetary financing, oil revenue dependency and fiscal balance. Higher = more stress.

Composite read2025

Fiscal Stress Score stands at 63.5 of 100 — high stress, near a 5-year low. Up 4.3 pts on the year, off its 2022 high of 84.1. Government Gross Debt pushes the score up most. The reading is firm — re-weighting its components keeps it within 61–66.

0weight-robustness band 61–66100
▲ Government Gross Debt
Current Score
63.5
index 0–100 · 2025
↑ 4.3 pts vs prior
near 5yr low
Historical Trend — last 20 periods
200620102014201720212025
Line chart in /100 from 2006 to 2025. Latest 63.54 /100, up 2061.2% over the period. Range 2.94 to 84.09.
Period/100
20062.94
200725
20084.74
200944.5
201043.81
201134.09
201236.96
201347.92
201452
201553.46
201664.81
201758.04
201867.84
201977.08
202083.41
202183.79
202284.09
202377.65
202459.29
202563.54
Component Indicators
4 components
What is moving the score
What is moving the scoreGovernment Gross Debt+6.3 ptsMonetary Financing Ratio+3.8 ptsFiscal Balance+0.8 ptsNet pull10.9 pts
What is moving the score
ComponentContribution ( pts)
Government Gross Debt+6.3
Monetary Financing Ratio+3.8
Fiscal Balance+0.8
Net pull10.9
Each driver's weight multiplied by its distance from its own historical median (the 50th percentile). Positive pulls the composite up, negative pulls it down; a driver sitting exactly at its median contributes nothing. Ordered by absolute effect.
Driver map — weight vs current pressure. Top-right = high-weight, high-pressure (watch these).
55606570202224262830weight %pressure (percentile)
Component driver map: weight versus current pressure
Itemweight %pressure (percentile)
Government Gross Debt (% GDP)3071
Monetary Financing Ratio (CBN credit to govt / M3)3063
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)2054
Government Gross Debt (% GDP)30%↑ raises score5yr high
Contribution pressure: 71% of range · range 5.2–53.2 % of GDP
35.5
% of GDP · 2025
Monetary Financing Ratio (CBN credit to govt / M3)30%↑ raises scorenear 5yr low
Contribution pressure: 63% of range · range 5.4–47.3 %
27.51
% · 2025
Oil Revenue Dependency20%↑ raises score
Contribution pressure: 0% of range · range 37.0–42.0 % of revenue
42
% of revenue · 2024
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)20%↓ lowers score
Contribution pressure: 54% of range · range -6.1–6.2 % of GDP
-1.8
% of GDP · 2025
Methodology — Each component is scored by its causal percentile rank against its own history to date (expanding window, no look-ahead), direction-adjusted, then weighted and summed to produce a 0–100 index. Trending nominal levels (e.g. the naira rate) enter as year-on-year change. Percentile labels compare the current reading against the prior 5-year distribution. Recomputed on every data ingest. Full methodology & validation →