Government fiscal vulnerability via debt levels, monetary financing, oil revenue dependency and fiscal balance. Higher = more stress.
HIGH STRESSnear 5yr lowLower is healthier
63.5current score · 2025↑ 4.3 pts vs prior
Composite read2025
Fiscal Stress Score stands at 63.5 of 100 — high stress, near a 5-year low. Up 4.3 pts on the year, off its 2022 high of 84.1. Government Gross Debt pushes the score up most. The reading is firm — re-weighting its components keeps it within 61–66.
0weight-robustness band 61–66100
▲ Government Gross Debt
Current reading63.5index 0–100 · 2025↑ 4.3 pts vs prior
near 5yr low
Historical trajectory · last 20 periods
Line chart in /100 from 2006 to 2025. Latest 63.54 /100, up 2061.2% over the period. Range 2.94 to 84.09.
Period
/100
2006
2.94
2007
25
2008
4.74
2009
44.5
2010
43.81
2011
34.09
2012
36.96
2013
47.92
2014
52
2015
53.46
2016
64.81
2017
58.04
2018
67.84
2019
77.08
2020
83.41
2021
83.79
2022
84.09
2023
77.65
2024
59.29
2025
63.54
Component evidence
Drivers and contribution pressure
4 components
What is moving the score
What is moving the score
Component
Contribution ( pts)
Government Gross Debt
+6.3
Monetary Financing Ratio
+3.8
Fiscal Balance
+0.8
Net pull
10.9
Each driver's weight multiplied by its distance from its own historical median (the 50th percentile). Positive pulls the composite up, negative pulls it down; a driver sitting exactly at its median contributes nothing. Ordered by absolute effect.
Driver map — weight vs current pressure. Top-right = high-weight, high-pressure (watch these).
Component driver map: weight versus current pressure
Item
weight %
pressure (percentile)
Government Gross Debt (% GDP)
30
71
Monetary Financing Ratio (CBN credit to govt / M3)
30
63
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
20
54
Government Gross Debt (% GDP)30%↑ raises score5yr high
Contribution pressure: 71% of range · range 5.2–53.2 % of GDP
35.5
% of GDP · 2025
Monetary Financing Ratio (CBN credit to govt / M3)30%↑ raises scorenear 5yr low
Contribution pressure: 63% of range · range 5.4–47.3 %
27.51
% · 2025
Oil Revenue Dependency20%↑ raises score
Contribution pressure: 0% of range · range 37.0–42.0 % of revenue
42
% of revenue · 2024
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)20%↓ lowers score
Contribution pressure: 54% of range · range -6.1–6.2 % of GDP
-1.8
% of GDP · 2025
Methodology and validation
Each component is scored by its causal percentile rank against its own history to date (expanding window, no look-ahead), direction-adjusted, then weighted and summed to produce a 0–100 index. Trending nominal levels such as the naira rate enter as year-on-year change. Percentile labels compare the current reading against the prior five-year distribution. The monitor is recomputed on every data ingest. Full methodology and validation →
