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The Brief

● OPERATIONAL·7 August 2026 WAT·64 active sectors·117,040 source-backed observations
✸Ask ONYXgrounded in ONYX data · every answer cites its sources
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Today's readparallel FX · 2026-08-06

The parallel market printed ₦1,385 to the dollar, inflation eased to 15.9%.

National composites · 20251 of 3 improved on the year
Investment Climate
46.8↓ 16.4% yoy
Fiscal Stress
63.5↑ 7.2% yoy
FX Pressure
14.2↓ 70.8% yoy
National Indices
3 composites
Nigeria Investment Climate Score (0-100)Index
46.8/ 100↓ 9.20 (16.4%)
90% weight-uncertainty: 34.9–57.0
201020132016201920222025
Line chart from 2010 to 2025. Latest 46.77, down 3.9% over the period. Range 17.45 to 55.97.
PeriodValue
201048.69
201132.57
201238.99
201341.52
201423.68
201517.45
201619.19
201740.23
201828.06
201923.57
202025.64
202133.55
202232.74
202342.62
202455.97
202546.77
Top drivers
FX Pressure Index (0=stable, 100=extreme)20% · ↓
Real GDP Growth Rate25% · ↑
as of 2025·33 periods · view breakdown →
Fiscal Stress Score (0=none, 100=extreme)Index
63.5/ 100↑ 4.25 (7.2%)
90% weight-uncertainty: 61.0–66.1
201020132016201920222025
Line chart from 2010 to 2025. Latest 63.54, up 45.0% over the period. Range 34.09 to 84.09.
PeriodValue
201043.81
201134.09
201236.96
201347.92
201452
201553.46
201664.81
201758.04
201867.84
201977.08
202083.41
202183.79
202284.09
202377.65
202459.29
202563.54
Top drivers
Government Gross Debt (% GDP)30% · ↑
Monetary Financing Ratio (CBN credit to govt / M3)30% · ↑
as of 2025·33 periods · view breakdown →
FX Pressure Index (0=stable, 100=extreme)Index
14.2/ 100↓ 34.44 (70.8%)
90% weight-uncertainty: 10.9–17.3
201020132016201920222025
Line chart from 2010 to 2025. Latest 14.18, down 76.5% over the period. Range 14.18 to 79.76.
PeriodValue
201060.33
201166.15
201244.61
201347.55
201473.1
201579.76
201668.78
201733.39
201852.13
201973.17
202064.67
202164.12
202275.06
202373.83
202448.62
202514.18
Top drivers
Private Sector Credit to GDP15% · ↓
Import Cover (months of reserves)35% · ↓
as of 2025·49 periods · view breakdown →
Macro at a Glance
4 indicators · 10-yr trend
Official FX Rate+347.2%
1.4K₦/$
September 2016September 2018September 2020August 2022August 2024August 2026
Line chart in ₦/$ from September 2016 to August 2026. Latest 1.4K ₦/$, up 347.2% over the period. Range 305.18 to 1.7K.
Period₦/$
September 2016305.23
October 2016305.21
November 2016305.18
December 2016305.22
January 2017305.2
February 2017305.31
March 2017306.4
April 2017306.05
May 2017305.54
June 2017305.72
July 2017305.86
August 2017305.67
September 2017305.89
October 2017305.62
November 2017305.9
December 2017306.31
January 2018305.78
February 2018305.9
March 2018305.74
April 2018305.61
May 2018305.83
June 2018305.87
July 2018305.81
August 2018306.06
September 2018306.27
October 2018306.51
November 2018306.71
December 2018306.92
January 2019306.85
February 2019306.77
March 2019306.92
April 2019306.96
May 2019306.95
June 2019306.95
July 2019306.94
August 2019306.93
September 2019306.92
October 2019306.96
November 2019306.95
December 2019306.95
January 2020306.96
February 2020306.96
March 2020326.63
April 2020361
May 2020361
June 2020361
July 2020377.19
August 2020381
September 2020381
October 2020381
November 2020381
December 2020381
January 2021381
February 2021381
March 2021381
April 2021381
May 2021400.13
June 2021410.12
July 2021410.12
August 2021410.39
September 2021410.8
October 2021411.25
November 2021411.74
December 2021414.34
January 2022415.96
February 2022416.95
March 2022415.72
April 2022415.53
May 2022415.95
June 2022415.64
July 2022417.26
August 2022426.06
September 2022435.57
October 2022440.85
November 2022445.58
December 2022450.71
January 2023460.99
February 2023460.84
March 2023460.97
April 2023460.96
May 2023462.01
June 2023610.71
July 2023770.32
August 2023762.12
September 2023762.02
October 2023796.94
November 2023835.4
December 2023899.07
January 2024944.08
February 20241.5K
March 20241.5K
April 20241.2K
May 20241.4K
June 20241.5K
July 20241.6K
August 20241.6K
September 20241.6K
October 20241.6K
November 20241.7K
December 20241.6K
January 20251.5K
February 20251.5K
March 20251.5K
April 20251.6K
May 20251.6K
June 20251.5K
July 20251.5K
August 20251.5K
September 20251.5K
October 20251.4K
November 20251.4K
December 20251.4K
January 20261.4K
February 20261.4K
March 20261.4K
April 20261.4K
May 20261.4K
June 20261.4K
July 20261.4K
August 20261.4K
Headline Inflation+6.9%
15.91%
November 2020November 2021November 2022November 2023November 2024June 2026
Line chart in % from November 2020 to June 2026. Latest 15.91 %, up 6.9% over the period. Range 14.45 to 34.8.
Period%
November 202014.89
December 202015.75
December 202015.75
January 202116.47
January 202116.47
February 202117.33
February 202117.33
March 202118.17
March 202118.17
April 202118.12
April 202118.12
May 202117.93
May 202117.93
June 202117.75
June 202117.75
July 202117.38
July 202117.38
August 202117.01
August 202117.01
September 202116.63
September 202116.63
October 202115.99
October 202115.99
November 202115.4
November 202115.4
December 202115.63
December 202115.63
January 202215.6
January 202215.6
February 202215.7
February 202215.7
March 202215.92
March 202215.92
April 202216.82
April 202216.82
May 202217.71
May 202217.71
June 202218.6
June 202218.6
July 202219.64
July 202219.64
August 202220.52
August 202220.52
September 202220.77
September 202220.77
October 202221.09
October 202221.09
November 202221.47
November 202221.47
December 202221.34
December 202221.34
January 202321.82
January 202321.82
February 202321.91
February 202321.91
March 202322.04
March 202322.04
April 202322.22
April 202322.22
May 202322.41
May 202322.41
June 202322.79
June 202322.79
July 202324.08
July 202324.08
August 202325.8
August 202325.8
September 202326.72
September 202326.72
October 202327.33
October 202327.33
November 202328.2
November 202328.2
December 202328.92
December 202328.92
January 202429.9
January 202429.9
February 202431.7
February 202431.7
March 202433.2
March 202433.2
April 202433.69
April 202433.69
May 202433.95
May 202433.95
June 202434.19
June 202434.19
July 202433.4
July 202433.4
August 202432.15
August 202432.15
September 202432.7
September 202432.7
October 202433.88
October 202433.88
November 202434.6
November 202434.6
December 202415.44
December 202434.8
January 202527.61
February 202526.27
March 202527.35
April 202526.82
May 202526.06
June 202526.06
July 202524.94
August 202523.14
September 202520.98
October 202518.97
November 202517.33
November 202514.45
December 202515.15
December 202515.15
January 202615.1
January 202615.1
February 202615.06
March 202615.38
April 202615.69
May 202615.93
June 202615.91
External Reserves+91.0%
50.04$bn
July 2016July 2018July 2020June 2022June 2024June 2026
Line chart in $bn from July 2016 to June 2026. Latest 50.04 $bn, up 91.0% over the period. Range 23.95 to 50.04.
Period$bn
July 201626.2
August 201625.42
September 201624.53
October 201623.95
November 201624.77
December 201625.84
January 201728.17
February 201729.65
March 201730.3
April 201730.86
May 201730.33
June 201730.29
July 201730.84
August 201731.83
September 201732.49
October 201733.83
November 201734.95
December 201738.77
January 201840.69
February 201842.49
March 201846.26
April 201847.49
May 201847.61
June 201847.79
July 201847.12
August 201845.84
September 201844.31
October 201842
November 201842.17
December 201843.12
January 201943.17
February 201942.3
March 201944.43
April 201944.79
May 201945.12
June 201945.07
July 201944.9
August 201943.61
September 201941.85
October 201940.46
November 201939.8
December 201938.6
January 202038.01
February 202036.3
March 202035.16
April 202033.52
May 202036.59
June 202036.19
July 202035.88
August 202035.67
September 202035.74
October 202035.69
November 202035.41
December 202035.37
January 202136.3
February 202135.1
March 202134.82
April 202134.88
May 202134.23
June 202133.32
July 202133.4
August 202134.02
September 202136.78
October 202141.83
November 202141.19
December 202140.52
January 202240.04
February 202239.86
March 202239.55
April 202239.58
May 202238.48
June 202239.16
July 202239.22
August 202239.02
September 202238.25
October 202237.39
November 202237.11
December 202237.08
January 202337
February 202336.68
March 202335.5
April 202335.25
May 202335.09
June 202334.12
July 202333.95
August 202333.95
September 202333.24
October 202333.4
November 202333
December 202332.91
January 202433.35
February 202433.72
March 202433.83
April 202432.25
May 202432.69
June 202434.19
July 202436.8
August 202436.31
September 202438.35
October 202439.79
November 202440.23
December 202440.88
January 202539.72
February 202538.42
March 202538.31
April 202537.93
May 202538.45
June 202537.21
July 202539.36
August 202541.31
September 202542.35
October 202543.2
November 202544.67
December 202545.5
January 202646.28
February 202649.69
March 202649.24
April 202648.36
May 202649.26
June 202650.04
Policy Rate (MPR)+89.3%
26.5%
July 2016July 2018July 2020June 2022June 2024June 2026
Line chart in % from July 2016 to June 2026. Latest 26.5 %, up 89.3% over the period. Range 11.5 to 27.5.
Period%
July 201614
August 201614
September 201614
October 201614
November 201614
December 201614
January 201714
February 201714
March 201714
April 201714
May 201714
June 201714
July 201714
August 201714
September 201714
October 201714
November 201714
December 201714
January 201814
February 201814
March 201814
April 201814
May 201814
June 201814
July 201814
August 201814
September 201814
October 201814
November 201814
December 201814
January 201914
February 201914
March 201913.5
April 201913.5
May 201913.5
June 201913.5
July 201913.5
August 201913.5
September 201913.5
October 201913.5
November 201913.5
December 201913.5
January 202013.5
February 202013.5
March 202013.5
April 202013.5
May 202012.5
June 202012.5
July 202012.5
August 202012.5
September 202011.5
October 202011.5
November 202011.5
December 202011.5
January 202111.5
February 202111.5
March 202111.5
April 202111.5
May 202111.5
June 202111.5
July 202111.5
August 202111.5
September 202111.5
October 202111.5
November 202111.5
December 202111.5
January 202211.5
February 202211.5
March 202211.5
April 202211.5
May 202213
June 202213
July 202214
August 202214
September 202215.5
October 202215.5
November 202216.5
December 202216.5
January 202317.5
February 202317.5
March 202318
April 202318
May 202318.5
June 202318.5
July 202318.75
August 202318.75
September 202318.75
October 202318.75
November 202318.75
December 202318.75
January 202418.75
February 202422.75
March 202424.75
April 202424.75
May 202426.25
June 202426.25
July 202426.75
August 202426.75
September 202427.25
October 202427.25
November 202427.5
December 202427.5
January 202527.5
February 202527.5
March 202527.5
April 202527.5
May 202527.5
June 202527.5
July 202527.5
August 202527
September 202527
October 202527
November 202527
December 202527
January 202627
February 202626.5
March 202626.5
April 202626.5
May 202626.5
June 202626.5
Reading in context
current print vs trailing range
Today's readings, placed in their own history
Official FX (NGN/USD)1,365.1
410.876% of range · 60-month range1,670.78
Headline inflation (% YoY)15.91
14.457% of range · 60-month range34.8
External reserves ($bn)50.04
32.25100% of range · 60-month range50.04
Policy rate (MPR, %)26.5
11.594% of range · 60-month range27.5
Today's readings, placed in their own history
SeriesLowCurrentHighPosition in range (%)
Official FX (NGN/USD)410.81365.11670.7876
Headline inflation (% YoY)14.4515.9134.87
External reserves ($bn)32.2550.0450.04100
Policy rate (MPR, %)11.526.527.594
The marker is the latest print; the band is the range the series has actually traded in over the window shown. A rate quoted without its range is not interpretable — this is the context a headline number omits.
Shadow FX Signal
USDT/NGN P2P · daily · ONYX exclusive
PARALLEL RATE (USDT/NGN)
₦1,385
PREMIUM OVER OFFICIAL
+1.6%
Nigeria’s de-facto digital parallel rate — pooled across Bybit + Bitget P2P order books. The premium over the official NAFEM rate is a real-time FX-scarcity gauge no other terminal publishes.
Country Risk Intelligence
security & humanitarian · annual
INTERNALLY DISPLACED
3.50M
total IDPs · 2025
201320152018202020232025
Line chart from 2013 to 2025. Latest 3.5M, up 5.9% over the period. Range 1.1M to 3.6M.
PeriodValue
20133.3M
20141.1M
20152.1M
20162M
20171.7M
20182.2M
20192.6M
20202.7M
20213.2M
20223.6M
20233.3M
20243.5M
20253.5M
IDMC
PEOPLE IN NEED
5.9M
humanitarian · 2026
UN OCHA
EPIDEMIC DEATHS
1,738
Lassa/cholera/etc · 2025
2022202320242025
Line chart from 2022 to 2025. Latest 1.7K, up 29.6% over the period. Range 952 to 2.8K.
PeriodValue
20221.3K
20232.8K
2024952
20251.7K
NCDC
HOMICIDE RATE
15.7
per 100k · 2023
201620192023
Line chart from 2016 to 2023. Latest 15.75, down 51.5% over the period. Range 15.75 to 32.44.
PeriodValue
201632.44
201921.1
202315.75
UNODC/WB
CORRUPTION INDEX
26/100
CPI · 2025
201220152017202020222025
Line chart from 2012 to 2025. Latest 26, down 3.7% over the period. Range 24 to 28.
PeriodValue
201227
201325
201427
201526
201628
201727
201827
201926
202025
202124
202224
202325
202426
202526
Transparency Intl
Sub-National Fiscal
by state · switch metric
FAAC Allocation · by state37 states · 2025

Federation Account allocations disbursed to each state — the dominant revenue line for most states.

76.9
649.67 NGN billionno data
Nigeria FAAC Allocation by state, 2025 (NGN billion)
StateNGN billion
Cross River104.2
FCT (Abuja)128.5
Ogun122.8
Oyo213.8
Sokoto94.3
Zamfara82.4
Lagos514.6
Akwa Ibom494.2
Bayelsa488.1
Ondo198.4
Delta649.7
Rivers526.3
Kwara102.3
Kogi98.5
Benue134.7
Borno198.8
Katsina148.1
Plateau96.4
Edo112.1
Jigawa94.8
Anambra199.9
Kano270.9
Nasarawa84.1
Kebbi88.7
Imo132.4
Gombe81.4
Adamawa86.3
Yobe83.5
Abia96.1
Ekiti76.9
Osun98.2
Bauchi92.5
Niger106.7
Kaduna152.6
Enugu114.6
Taraba86.8
Ebonyi78.2
RMAFC · NBS·as of 2025·high
Click a state for its full fiscal profile
Top 8 — FAAC Allocation
Delta
650NGN billion
Rivers
526NGN billion
Lagos
515NGN billion
Akwa Ibom
494NGN billion
Bayelsa
488NGN billion
Kano
271NGN billion
Oyo
214NGN billion
Anambra
200NGN billion
Top states by FAAC Allocation
ItemNGN billion
Delta650
Rivers526
Lagos515
Akwa Ibom494
Bayelsa488
Kano271
Oyo214
Anambra200
Featured — Official FX Rate
September 2016 → August 2026
1,365NGN / USD
2004006008001K1.2K1.4K1.6K1.8K₦/$naira floatSeptember 2016March 2019September 2021February 2024August 2026
Line chart in ₦/$ from September 2016 to August 2026. Latest 1.4K ₦/$, up 347.2% over the period. Range 305.18 to 1.7K.
Period₦/$
September 2016305.23
October 2016305.21
November 2016305.18
December 2016305.22
January 2017305.2
February 2017305.31
March 2017306.4
April 2017306.05
May 2017305.54
June 2017305.72
July 2017305.86
August 2017305.67
September 2017305.89
October 2017305.62
November 2017305.9
December 2017306.31
January 2018305.78
February 2018305.9
March 2018305.74
April 2018305.61
May 2018305.83
June 2018305.87
July 2018305.81
August 2018306.06
September 2018306.27
October 2018306.51
November 2018306.71
December 2018306.92
January 2019306.85
February 2019306.77
March 2019306.92
April 2019306.96
May 2019306.95
June 2019306.95
July 2019306.94
August 2019306.93
September 2019306.92
October 2019306.96
November 2019306.95
December 2019306.95
January 2020306.96
February 2020306.96
March 2020326.63
April 2020361
May 2020361
June 2020361
July 2020377.19
August 2020381
September 2020381
October 2020381
November 2020381
December 2020381
January 2021381
February 2021381
March 2021381
April 2021381
May 2021400.13
June 2021410.12
July 2021410.12
August 2021410.39
September 2021410.8
October 2021411.25
November 2021411.74
December 2021414.34
January 2022415.96
February 2022416.95
March 2022415.72
April 2022415.53
May 2022415.95
June 2022415.64
July 2022417.26
August 2022426.06
September 2022435.57
October 2022440.85
November 2022445.58
December 2022450.71
January 2023460.99
February 2023460.84
March 2023460.97
April 2023460.96
May 2023462.01
June 2023610.71
July 2023770.32
August 2023762.12
September 2023762.02
October 2023796.94
November 2023835.4
December 2023899.07
January 2024944.08
February 20241.5K
March 20241.5K
April 20241.2K
May 20241.4K
June 20241.5K
July 20241.6K
August 20241.6K
September 20241.6K
October 20241.6K
November 20241.7K
December 20241.6K
January 20251.5K
February 20251.5K
March 20251.5K
April 20251.6K
May 20251.6K
June 20251.5K
July 20251.5K
August 20251.5K
September 20251.5K
October 20251.4K
November 20251.4K
December 20251.4K
January 20261.4K
February 20261.4K
March 20261.4K
April 20261.4K
May 20261.4K
June 20261.4K
July 20261.4K
August 20261.4K
CBN·as of Aug 2026·high
Hover to inspect · higher = weaker naira
Top Movers
latest period
Agriculture vs Total GDP Growth Gap
as of Q1 2026· % points
-0.74↓ 0.67 (957.1%)
Oil Production vs OPEC Quota Gap
as of Feb 2026· mbpd
-0.19↓ 0.14 (353.7%)
Real M3 Broad Money Growth
as of 2026· %
-13.34↓ 8.65 (184.4%)
Food Inflation Premium vs Headline
as of May 2026· % points
1.03↑ 0.66 (178.4%)
Remittance to GDP
as of 2024· % of GDP
8.44↑ 4.43 (110.4%)
Core Inflation Premium vs Headline
as of May 2026· % points
-0.16↑ 0.76 (82.6%)
Trade Openness
as of 2024· % of GDP
37.49↑ 16.03 (74.7%)
Strongest Signals
32 live sectors scoredAll signals →
Fintech & Payments80
STRONG OPPORTUNITY
POS transactions: N18.4tn (Q1 2026). NIP instant payments: $600m+/day. 25+ active CBN Sandbox licences. Startup funding corrected from $1.2bn (2021) to ~$400m (2024) -- a valuation reset, not a structural decline.
Agriculture & Food Security78
HIGH POTENTIAL
Agriculture is 25% of GDP but receives less than 5% of formal credit. Farmgate-to-shelf post-harvest loss at 40%+ is both a structural problem and a clearly investable opportunity.
Digital Economy & Telecoms78
STRONG OPPORTUNITY
215m mobile subscribers, 40%+ internet penetration. MTN Nigeria EBITDA margin at 45%+ confirms infrastructure quality. 5G spectrum allocated 2022 -- tower infrastructure buildout is the active investment phase.
Real Estate78
SUPPLY SHORTAGE
20m housing unit deficit. Lagos Grade-A office: $650/m2/yr (dollar-denominated). Ikoyi/VI residential at $250-500k average ticket; Lekki at $80-200k. Rent-to-income ratio in Lagos exceeds 50% for middle-income households.
FX & External Reserves76
STABILISING
Parallel/official FX spread compressed from 80%+ (2022) to below 5% (Jun 2026). External reserves at $51.04bn -- a 7-year high. CBN net open position positive for the first time since 2021.
Banking & Financial Services75
STRONG OPPORTUNITY
CBN N500bn recapitalisation mandate (2024-2026) is the most consequential sector event since 2009. Tier-1 ROAE at 32%+, NPL ratios below 5% -- balance sheets are structurally sound entering the growth phase.